COSAS VISTAS ...
"Cutbacks!" — Simply Red

- Simply Red & la crisis crediticia. La crisis crediticia se extiende a Europa del Este y a ... los bancos europeos que prestaron a la región (*). Estamos viviendo un nuevo "round" de flight-to-safety o flight-to-quality: la oferta de recursos prestables se contrae bruscamente para privados y para soberanos "emergentes", y se amplía para emisores de riesgo-cero (G3). La consecuencia es una suba de credit spreads en todos los segmentos del mercado de crédito. Ayer el Bund alemán a 10 años operó por primera vez por debajo de 3%; hay bonos de compañías rusas rindiendo cerca de 80%. La mejor manera de entenderlo es a través de la excelente canción de Simply Red, Money's too tight to mention (1985):

I’ve been laid off from work my rent is due
My kids all need brand new shoes
So I went to the bank to see what they could do
They said son looks like bad luck got a hold on you

Money’s too tight to mention
I can’t get an unemployment extension
Money’s too tight to mention

I went to my brother to see what he could do
He said brother I’d like to help but I’m unable to
So called on my father, father
Almighty father, he said

Money’s too tight to mention
Oh money money money money
Money’s too tight to mention
I can’t even qualify for my pension

Were talking bout reaganomics
Oh lord down in the congress
They’re passing all kinds of bills
From up there on capitol hill, we’ve tried it

Money’s too tight to mention
Oh money money money money
Money’s too tight to mention
Cutbacks!

Were talking bout the dollar bill
And that old man who’s over the hill
Now what are we all to do
When money’s got a hold on you

La letra describe bien la característica central de un episodio de flight-to-quality: ¡Nadie presta! Ni el banco, ni el hermano, ni el padre. El desempleo aumenta, el Congreso vota cualquier cosa: "They're passing all kinds of bills". ¡Inmejorable!

(*) Sobre este punto, ver el siempre tenebroso, pero últimamente muy acertado Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: “Failure to save East Europe will lead to worldwide meltdown”, The Telegraph.
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- Clases en Leiden. Tengo un blog dedicado a mis clases de International Political en la Universidad de Leiden. Este es un resumen de la segunda sesión.
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