LIQUIDEZ GLOBAL. "BUSINESS WEEK" & LAS TASAS DE INTERÉS
. Michael Mandel & David Henry. "It's A Low, Low, Low, Low-Rate World", Business Week

Imperdible estudio de Business Week sobre el fenómeno de las bajas tasas de interés mundiales. El artículo refleja lo mejor del periodismo estadounidense: citas, siempre citas, y más citas. Aquí va una "síntesis ordenada":

[1] Las causas del bajo costo del capital: innovación e ... instituciones. La innovación financiera juega un papel crucial: los nuevos productos derivados permiten distribuir mejor los riesgos y evitar una excesiva concentración del riesgo:

"... innovation seems to have reached a fever pitch with the recent advances in collateralized debt obligations (CDOs), which keep borrowing costs low by dividing risks into big buckets and then reallocating them among hundreds of investors. With nearly half a trillion dollars' worth issued in 2006 alone, and with the risks widely dispersed, investors are willing to put more skin in the game. Financial innovation in the form of CDOs has changed the risk premium associated with the bond market".

Desde el punto de vista institucional, Business Week destaca dos hechos: la creación del euro en 1999 y la ... fragilidad de la propiedad en América Latina, China y la India. El euro contribuye a agrandar el tamaño del mercado de crédito global. A su vez, la fragilidad institucional del mundo emergente lo convierte en "financista" del mundo desarrollado:

"They can collect the money, but they don't have the financial institutions that can put it to the best use. According to a November, 2006, survey of executives by McKinsey & Co., only 40% of respondents in China and Latin America said their company's access to external funding is good or very good. Eventually the financial systems in China and India will improve, and a lot more of their capital will be used at home. That won't happen anytime soon, though. In a new book, The Next Great Globalization, Federal Reserve Governor Frederic S. Mishkin writes: "It takes a long time for any nation to achieve strong property rights and an effective financial system." ... Over the long term, the big issue is the development of better financial systems in China, India, and other emerging markets".

[2] ¿Cuanto tiempo durará el fenómeno? Business Week se limita a citar un par de opiniones, en general muy optimistas:

"Most remarkably, the craziness isn't likely to stop anytime soon. The low cost of capital is probably going to last 'five to seven years', says Samuel Zell, who as chairman of real estate firm Equity Office Properties Trust (EOP ) watched bidders wield cheap debt in a fight over his company. James W. Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Management (WFC ), sees an even longer horizon: 'This could be a prolonged cycle where the cost of capital is low [for] 10 or 20 years.' It is, indeed, a low, low, low-rate world".

[3] Los riesgos. Naturalmente, el escenario de bajo costo del capital significa que muchos proyectos de dudosa viabilidad tendrán financiamiento, lo que crea las condiciones para una crisis en el futuro:

"Kingman D. Penniman, founder of KDP Investment Advisors Inc., a bond research firm, sees a dark side to this: 'You're laying the groundwork for future turbulence.' The shift to a low-rate world doesn't mean lower volatility. In fact, excesses, crack-ups, and bad investments are not only possible but guaranteed. 'Over the next several years there's likely to be some event that will widen out the spreads', says Zane Brown, director of fixed income at mutual fund manager Lord, Abbett & Co".